WEATHER UPDATE: Conditions will gradually improve as a cold front moves eastward across the islands today, but additional rain is possible on Sunday and Monday
Background
As of 6:00 AM HST on Friday, April 10:
We are approaching the end of the worst impacts expected from this storm system.
Analysis of satellite and radar imagery shows that a cold front is moving eastward across the islands this morning. The frontal boundary has already cleared Kauaʻi and is approaching Oʻahu. Light and variable winds, along with drier conditions, will fill in behind the front as it passes across each island today. Although drier conditions are expected across the islands on Saturday, there may be a few more rounds of light to moderate rain on Sunday and Monday. As the storm system moves out of the region, trade winds are not likely to resume right away, and a land breeze/sea breeze regime will dominate the region throughout the upcoming week.
Key points
As of 6:00 AM HST on Friday, April 10:
Conditions are improving across Kauaʻi behind the front.
Conditions will gradually improve across each of the rest of the islands as the last push of heavy rain associated with the front moves eastward today.
Lighter and more variable winds will settle in behind the front, but isolated downpours will still be possible with the lingering moisture.
Although conditions are likely to be benign on Saturday, a few more rounds of light to moderate rain showers are likely to push through on Sunday and Monday.
Light and variable winds will linger through the end of the week, resulting in very humid conditions despite the lack of rain.
Trade wind conditions may begin to settle back into the region over the upcoming weekend.
Forecast synopsis
As of 4:38 AM HST on Friday, April 10:
From the National Weather Service office in Honolulu:
A low northwest of the state will swing east before lifting north today and be absorbed is a stronger, nearly stationary, low far northwest of the state. A front just west of Kauai associated with the low will move eastward pushing a broad band of showers eastward across the state through the day. Strong southerly winds ahead of the front will shift over Oahu this morning with light westerly winds filling in behind the front. Drier and lighter winds are expected to fill in across the state Saturday as the front pushes east of the state and weakens. Chance of showers will increase again across the state Sunday into early next week. Land/sea breezes will dominate much of the weather pattern next week as the low remains north of the state.
Weather risk outlook
As of 3:00 PM HST on Thursday, April 9:
NOTE: An updated risk outlook will be posted later this morning.
| Location | FRI | SAT | SUN | MON |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall risk: | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Kauaʻi | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Oʻahu | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Maui | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Hawaiʻi | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Key: · - little to none; 1 - minor; 2 - moderate; 3 - major; 4 - extreme
Weather risk descriptions
As of 3:00 PM HST on Thursday, April 9:
Kauaʻi: Heavy rain and strong south-southeasterly winds during the morning, diminishing by the afternoon
Oʻahu: Heavy rain and strong south-southeasterly winds during the morning, diminishing by the afternoon
Maui: Heavy rain and strong southeasterly winds during the morning, diminishing by the afternoon
Hawaiʻi: (Windward and southeastern-facing slopes): Moderate rain and moderate, light winds.
Hawaiʻi: (Leeward areas): Scattered showers with locally heavy downpours and moderate, light winds.
Projected rainfall totals:
As of 6:00 AM HST on Friday, April 10:
Below are projections for the remainder of the rainfall expected between now and midnight on Tuesday from the National Weather Service’s National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD), the ECMWF model, and the GFS model. The NDFD values can be viewed using the NWS’s IDSS Forecast Points tool.
| City | NWS | ECMWF | GFS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lihue | 5.6 | 3.5 | 5.8 |
| Honolulu | 9.0 | 3.5 | 4.4 |
| Wahiawa | 11.2 | 4.2 | 2.6 |
| Kaneohe | 11.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 |
| Kahului | 6.4 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Hana | 5.2 | 3.8 | 3.1 |
| Molokai | 9.5 | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| Lanai | 8.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| Hilo | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.7 |
| Kona | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 |
More information
For more information on the impacts of this system as it develops, please check out these links:
National Weather Service
- NWS Honolulu homepage
- NWS Honolulu Area Forecast Discussion
- NWS Honolulu on Facebook
- NWS Honolulu on X
Hawaii Emergency Management Agency
[link] [comments]
Want to read more?
Check out the full article on the original site